220 Million Paying ChatGPT Users by 2030? Let's Talk Math!
Every once in a while a number comes along that makes me spit out my chai. This week it was this one from The Information:
OpenAI quietly expects 220 million people to pay (mostly $20/month) for ChatGPT Plus within the next five years.
Two hundred and twenty million.
That's like every single person in Russia + Brazil deciding tomorrow that ChatGPT is worth twenty bucks a month. Wild, right?
So of course I had to grab my calculator, call a couple of my favorite growth friends, and figure out what this actually means for the rest of us—small-business owners, creators, community builders, and curious humans who just love watching the future unfold.
Let's break it down together, the way we always do—no hype, just real talk and maybe one dad joke.
Where we are today (July 2025)
That's pretty normal for freemium apps at scale.
Where OpenAI thinks we're going (2030 projections)
The Numbers
Yes, you read that right. Fifty-three billion dollars a year from subscriptions alone. That's more than Netflix, Spotify, and Disney+ combined today.
But here's what got me really excited: this isn't just about OpenAI getting rich. This is a massive signal about where value is moving online.
Three gentle truths I see in these numbers
Truth #1: People WILL pay for better thinking
We already pay for better fitness (Peloton), better sleep (Oura), better photos (Lightroom). Paying for better thinking feels… normal now. My mom in Hyderabad is seriously considering Plus because it helps her write better WhatsApp messages to the family group. If my mom is in, we've officially crossed the chasm.
Truth #2: The "good enough free" bar keeps rising
Remember when Gmail felt magical in 2004? Today the free tier of ChatGPT is already that magical—and it's only going to get smarter. Which means the paid tier has to feel 5× better, not just 10% better.
That's actually wonderful news for every indie developer and small SaaS founder reading this: the game is now "delight," not just "function."
Truth #3: Community + tools = the new moat
Here's my favorite part. The people I know who upgraded fastest weren't chasing tokens—they wanted custom GPTs, shared team workspaces, and (let's be honest) that little blue check of "I'm serious about this."
The real magic happens when the tool becomes part of your community's daily rhythm.
Practical tips if you're wondering "Should I pay for Plus/Pro myself?"
Ask yourself these four kind questions (I use them every time I consider a subscription):
- → Does the tool save me (or make me) more than $1 per day? → $20/month = ~66 cents a day. Easy yes for most of us.
- → Do I feel joy when I use it? (Weird question, but delight compounds.)
- → Am I secretly embarrassed showing clients my free-tier screenshots? → Upgrade. Professionalism is part of the deliverable.
- → Can I build something custom that becomes a mini-moat for my business or community? → That's the real ROI.
My current stack
- Gemini Pro → daily driver
- Abacus.AI → choose any model
- Grok
- Claude.ai
The gentlest prediction I'll make
In five years, having an AI assistant you pay for will feel as normal as having a paid phone plan. The free versions will still be fantastic, but the people who are intentional about their tools will simply move faster, think clearer, and yes—be kinder—because they're not exhausted from mechanical work.
And kindness at scale is what the internet has always needed.
So yeah, 220 million paying humans by 2030 feels… totally doable. Maybe even conservative.
What do you think? Share in the comments or find me on Twitter @shashib – I read every reply.
And if you just upgraded because of this post, send me a screenshot. I'll retweet you with proud-uncle energy ❤️
Comments